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Colonel Gaddafi refuses to quit and stands firm

Latest in a string of struggling undemocratic regimes across the region, Colonel Gaddafi, unelected leader of Libya, remains defiant to the end according his speech broadcast by the world's press yesterday. His speech, which lasted more than an hour, would be kindly described as a rambling mess with frequent and unbelievably long pauses between topics as Gaddafi checks his script.

He said that he could not and would not leave his country and that he would "die a martyr". He threatened the country's young people by saying that "anyone who undermines the state will be punished by death".

Before long he turned to an old tactic of blaming Western news agencies such as the BBC for spreading malicious lies about his regime. He ordered his people to only watch Libyan state TV as it would respond to and that had been said about Gaddafi in the last few days.

Meanwhile our own Foreign Secretary William Hague has reportedly said that the "structure of the Libyan state is collapsing" around Gaddafi.

INTERNATIONAL POWER STRUGGLE


One thing I am not sure on in the international community's reaction. It is true that even the big players like the USA and UK have strongly condemned the violence in response to the demonstrations, but I am still seeing a tempering in our behaviour towards Libya. It's not hard to work out why of course. Libya accounts for a significant percentage of Europe's oil supply.

That being said however, Europe accounts for over 70% of Libya's exports in oil. I suppose it is this reason that means we feel we can tell Gaddafi off a little bit, but there is still a very obvious tentativeness among the world's leaders. On top of that Saudi Arabia has said that any shortfall in Libya's output of oil can and would be recovered by other producing nations so there was no reason to worry about oil prices spinning out of control.

I was most impressed by US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton's statement in which she said the United States strongly condemned the violence and called the attacks on demonstrators "absolutely unacceptable". In political terms that's little short of declaring all out war. (Well, sort of.)

WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?


Gaddafi will have seen what happened in Egypt of course. He has seen that what his people are doing now has happened before in Egypt where the President was forced to step down by the army. He is therefore going to continue to show his strength and attempt to bully his people into submission before any such ending comes to him.

He is lucky in that the army is not so separate to the government as it was in Egypt. For the most part it will do as he commands, although the recent defecting of two fighter pilots after they were ordered to bomb demonstrators is testament to the fact that not every order will be heard. Even so, it wasn't until the order was passed on to the actual pilots until in was disobeyed. That implies that at least the vast majority of senior ranks are still loyal to their colonel.

We'll all be watching with baited breath I think. Let's hope that if we see much more violence then the international community will step forwards with more force.

 - Tom

They're Falling Like Dominoes

Or are they? In recent days and weeks the world has seen protest after protest in countries all along Northern Africa and parts of the Middle East including in Egypt and, most interestingly at the moment, Bahrain. But apart from showing everyday people in the West that these countries exist, what does this actually mean? Is it, as many of us (I'm sure) are hoping, the beginning of a trend? The first few in a whole world of domino-like autocracies and dictatorships crumbling to the ground? Or is it a flash point that will burn itself out before the year is through with?

Mubarak makes the U-Turn of the Century!

HOLD IT! Stop the presses!

Despite stating categorically in his speech to the nation on Thursday evening that he would not be stepping down or aside until the next election (9 months away) the Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak yesterday gave up his post as Premier of Egypt. All powers now rest with the Egyptian Military's High Council in what is being called a "transitional period".

World leaders including US President Barack Obama and my own Prime Minister David Cameron gave their professional annotations to the events. Cameron called for an immediate move towards civilian and democratic rule.

And well he might. The worry now is the aftermath. With the military in charge, can the Egyptian people and the world rely on their promises? Will the 30 year-long "State of Emergency" truly be lifted after the current events peter out? Will the army give up control back to a civilian, democratically elected government?

One thing is for sure, every single expectation has been flipped on its head at least twice in the last 2 weeks. First in Tunisia, now in Egypt, the authoritarian regimes of the region are falling like dominoes in a way not even the most seasoned of commentators could have predicted.

Military Cracks


The Egyptian military was always going to be the key to this whole situation. That being said however, they showed a remarkable level of restraint over the last 2 weeks both with the demonstrators and with the dictatorial leadership. They neither wanted to oust Mubarak or forcibly remove the protests from Tahrir Square.

In the end though the senior members of the military began to see crack in their own ranks that forced their hand to eventually remove Mubarak from power, according to BBC World Affairs Editor John Simpson. Whilst senior general sided with the regime (Mubarak was one of them) their junior officers and normal soldiers increasingly sympathised with the masses.

 - Tom